Sigma Olomouc II 3–1 Vysočina Jihlava II

Sigma Olomouc II

FT

3 – 1

Vysočina Jihlava II

10/31/2021

3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 14Andrúv stadion hřiště č. 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Sigma Olomouc II73%

×Draw16%

Vysočina Jihlava II10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sigma Olomouc IIExpected goals in this matchVysočina Jihlava II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

0.81

Sigma Olomouc II

2.46

Vysočina Jihlava II

0.81

Sigma Olomouc II creates 204% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 23 away

2.17

creates per match

0.70

0.93

allows per match

2.74

creates per match

Sigma Olomouc II

2.17

Vysočina Jihlava II

0.70

allows per match

Sigma Olomouc II

0.93

Vysočina Jihlava II

2.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sigma Olomouc II+0.00on par

Vysočina Jihlava II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sigma Olomouc II ↓

Vysočina Jihlava II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Sigma Olomouc II or draw

90%

Sigma Olomouc II or Vysočina Jihlava II

84%

Draw or Vysočina Jihlava II

27%

Winning margin

Sigma Olomouc II wins by 2+

51%

Vysočina Jihlava II wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Sigma Olomouc II 1+ goals

91%

Sigma Olomouc II 2+ goals

70%

Sigma Olomouc II 3+ goals

44%

Vysočina Jihlava II 1+ goals

56%

Vysočina Jihlava II 2+ goals

19%

Vysočina Jihlava II 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Sigma Olomouc II (draw refunded)

88%

Vysočina Jihlava II (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sigma Olomouc II at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.93 · 46 matches

Vysočina Jihlava II away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.74 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sigma Olomouc II attack 2.17 + Vysočina Jihlava II defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 2.46

Vysočina Jihlava II attack 0.70 + Sigma Olomouc II defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Sigma Olomouc II scores more

73%

level

16%

Vysočina Jihlava II scores more

10%

Sigma Olomouc II at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Sigma Olomouc II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff