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Vysočina Jihlava II vs Hlučín — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Vysočina Jihlava II
Vysočina Jihlava II
FT
0 – 3
Hlučín
Hlučín
4/10/20223. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 23Stadion Na Stoupách

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Vysočina Jihlava II23%
×Draw20%
Hlučín57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vysočina Jihlava II
1.33
Hlučín
2.19

Hlučín creates 65% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 81 away

creates per match

Vysočina Jihlava II
1.29
Hlučín
1.67

allows per match

Vysočina Jihlava II
2.71
Hlučín
1.36

finishing

Vysočina Jihlava II+0.00on par
Hlučín+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vysočina Jihlava II ↓

Hlučín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Vysočina Jihlava II or draw
43%
Vysočina Jihlava II or Hlučín
80%
Draw or Hlučín
77%

Winning margin

Vysočina Jihlava II wins by 2+
9%
Hlučín wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Vysočina Jihlava II 1+ goals
74%
Vysočina Jihlava II 2+ goals
38%
Vysočina Jihlava II 3+ goals
15%
Hlučín 1+ goals
89%
Hlučín 2+ goals
64%
Hlučín 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Vysočina Jihlava II (draw refunded)
29%
Hlučín (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vysočina Jihlava II at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.71 · 21 matches

Hlučín away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.36 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vysočina Jihlava II attack 1.29 + Hlučín defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.33

Hlučín attack 1.67 + Vysočina Jihlava II defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Vysočina Jihlava II scores more
23%
level
20%
Hlučín scores more
57%

Hlučín at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Hlučín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - MSFL: Vysočina Jihlava II 0–3 Hlučín

Hlučín beat Vysočina Jihlava II 3-0 in 3. liga - MSFL on April 10, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Na Stoupách in Jihlava.