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Hlučín vs Vysočina Jihlava II — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Hlučín
Hlučín
FT
2 – 0
Vysočina Jihlava II
Vysočina Jihlava II
M. Praus 70'
R. Loksa 4' (pen)
9/3/20213. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 6Městský fotbalový stadion Hlučín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Hlučín64%
×Draw20%
Vysočina Jihlava II16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hlučín
2.21
Vysočina Jihlava II
1.02

Hlučín creates 117% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 23 away

creates per match

Hlučín
1.69
Vysočina Jihlava II
0.70

allows per match

Hlučín
1.34
Vysočina Jihlava II
2.74

finishing

Hlučín+0.00on par
Vysočina Jihlava II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hlučín ↓

Vysočina Jihlava II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Hlučín or draw
84%
Hlučín or Vysočina Jihlava II
80%
Draw or Vysočina Jihlava II
36%

Winning margin

Hlučín wins by 2+
41%
Vysočina Jihlava II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Hlučín 1+ goals
89%
Hlučín 2+ goals
65%
Hlučín 3+ goals
38%
Vysočina Jihlava II 1+ goals
64%
Vysočina Jihlava II 2+ goals
27%
Vysočina Jihlava II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Hlučín (draw refunded)
80%
Vysočina Jihlava II (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hlučín at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.34 · 85 matches

Vysočina Jihlava II away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.74 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hlučín attack 1.69 + Vysočina Jihlava II defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 2.21

Vysočina Jihlava II attack 0.70 + Hlučín defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Hlučín scores more
64%
level
20%
Vysočina Jihlava II scores more
16%

Hlučín at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Hlučín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
R. LoksaPenalty
25'
J. Ruzicka← J. Ruzicka
44'
R. Plesnik
59'
T. Buchvaldek← T. Buchvaldek
59'
J. Holzer← J. Holzer
63'
A. Ritter
70'
M. Praus
71'
O. Moucka← R. Dostal
71'
V. Havlin← V. Havlin
73'
J. Araujo-Wilson
77'
K. Crhan← K. Crhan
77'
A. Savi← A. Savi
86'
A. Savi
87'
S. Chocholaty
90'
L. Kolcava
90'
T. Hykel← T. Hykel
90'
T. Wolf← T. Wolf
90+2'
J. Ruzicka

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - MSFL: Hlučín 2–0 Vysočina Jihlava II

Hlučín beat Vysočina Jihlava II 2-0 in 3. liga - MSFL on September 3, 2021.

Goals: R. Loksa (4' pen), M. Praus (70').

The match was played at Městský fotbalový stadion Hlučín in Hlučín.