Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Vysočina Jihlava II vs Břeclav — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Vysočina Jihlava II
Vysočina Jihlava II
FT
5 – 0
Břeclav
Břeclav
8/24/20194. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Round 4Tréninkový areál v ulici Na Stoupách (Jihlava)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Vysočina Jihlava II63%
×Draw19%
Břeclav18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vysočina Jihlava II
2.32
Břeclav
1.17

Vysočina Jihlava II creates 98% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 66 away

creates per match

Vysočina Jihlava II
2.50
Břeclav
1.03

allows per match

Vysočina Jihlava II
1.30
Břeclav
2.14

finishing

Vysočina Jihlava II+0.00on par
Břeclav+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vysočina Jihlava II ↓

Břeclav →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Vysočina Jihlava II or draw
82%
Vysočina Jihlava II or Břeclav
81%
Draw or Břeclav
37%

Winning margin

Vysočina Jihlava II wins by 2+
40%
Břeclav wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Vysočina Jihlava II 1+ goals
90%
Vysočina Jihlava II 2+ goals
67%
Vysočina Jihlava II 3+ goals
40%
Břeclav 1+ goals
69%
Břeclav 2+ goals
33%
Břeclav 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Vysočina Jihlava II (draw refunded)
78%
Břeclav (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vysočina Jihlava II at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.30 · 20 matches

Břeclav away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.14 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vysočina Jihlava II attack 2.50 + Břeclav defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.32

Břeclav attack 1.03 + Vysočina Jihlava II defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Vysočina Jihlava II scores more
63%
level
19%
Břeclav scores more
18%

Vysočina Jihlava II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Vysočina Jihlava II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie D: Vysočina Jihlava II 5–0 Břeclav

Vysočina Jihlava II beat Břeclav 5-0 in 4. liga - Divizie D on August 24, 2019.

The match was played at Tréninkový areál v ulici Na Stoupách (Jihlava).