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Břeclav vs Vysočina Jihlava II — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Břeclav
Břeclav
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Vysočina Jihlava II
Vysočina Jihlava II
4/8/20234. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 17Stadion Lesní ulice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Břeclav31%
×Draw24%
Vysočina Jihlava II45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Břeclav
1.35
Vysočina Jihlava II
1.68

Vysočina Jihlava II creates 24% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 19 away

creates per match

Břeclav
1.39
Vysočina Jihlava II
2.00

allows per match

Břeclav
1.36
Vysočina Jihlava II
1.32

finishing

Břeclav+0.00on par
Vysočina Jihlava II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Břeclav ↓

Vysočina Jihlava II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Břeclav or draw
55%
Břeclav or Vysočina Jihlava II
76%
Draw or Vysočina Jihlava II
69%

Winning margin

Břeclav wins by 2+
14%
Vysočina Jihlava II wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Břeclav 1+ goals
74%
Břeclav 2+ goals
39%
Břeclav 3+ goals
15%
Vysočina Jihlava II 1+ goals
81%
Vysočina Jihlava II 2+ goals
50%
Vysočina Jihlava II 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Břeclav (draw refunded)
41%
Vysočina Jihlava II (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Břeclav at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.36 · 69 matches

Vysočina Jihlava II away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Břeclav attack 1.39 + Vysočina Jihlava II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.35

Vysočina Jihlava II attack 2.00 + Břeclav defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Břeclav scores more
31%
level
24%
Vysočina Jihlava II scores more
45%

Vysočina Jihlava II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Vysočina Jihlava II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Břeclav vs Vysočina Jihlava II

Břeclav beat Vysočina Jihlava II 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie D on April 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Lesní ulice in Břeclav.