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Vysočina Jihlava II vs Baník Ostrava II — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Vysočina Jihlava II
Vysočina Jihlava II
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Baník Ostrava II
Baník Ostrava II
A. Savi 17'
D. Holan 81'
D. Janosek 72', 31'
M. Sin 40'
5/8/20223. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 27Stadion Na Stoupách

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Vysočina Jihlava II18%
×Draw19%
Baník Ostrava II63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vysočina Jihlava II
1.21
Baník Ostrava II
2.40

Baník Ostrava II creates 98% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 65 away

creates per match

Vysočina Jihlava II
1.29
Baník Ostrava II
2.08

allows per match

Vysočina Jihlava II
2.71
Baník Ostrava II
1.14

finishing

Vysočina Jihlava II+0.00on par
Baník Ostrava II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vysočina Jihlava II ↓

Baník Ostrava II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Vysočina Jihlava II or draw
37%
Vysočina Jihlava II or Baník Ostrava II
81%
Draw or Baník Ostrava II
82%

Winning margin

Vysočina Jihlava II wins by 2+
7%
Baník Ostrava II wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Vysočina Jihlava II 1+ goals
70%
Vysočina Jihlava II 2+ goals
34%
Vysočina Jihlava II 3+ goals
12%
Baník Ostrava II 1+ goals
91%
Baník Ostrava II 2+ goals
69%
Baník Ostrava II 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Vysočina Jihlava II (draw refunded)
22%
Baník Ostrava II (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vysočina Jihlava II at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.71 · 21 matches

Baník Ostrava II away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.14 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vysočina Jihlava II attack 1.29 + Baník Ostrava II defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.21

Baník Ostrava II attack 2.08 + Vysočina Jihlava II defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Vysočina Jihlava II scores more
18%
level
19%
Baník Ostrava II scores more
63%

Baník Ostrava II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Baník Ostrava II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
A. Savi
31'
D. Janosek
40'
M. Sin
46'
J. Vitek← J. Vitek
46'
M. Fila← M. Fila
54'
L. Arroyo
55'
J. Drozd← J. Drozd
66'
L. Musil← A. Novak
67'
J. Blahuta← J. Blahuta
67'
M. Kostka← M. Kostka
68'
S. Nemecek
71'
M. Walter← M. Walter
72'
D. Janosek
81'
D. Holan
83'
Z. Riha
84'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vysočina Jihlava II vs Baník Ostrava II

Baník Ostrava II beat Vysočina Jihlava II 4-1 in 3. liga - MSFL on May 8, 2022.

Goals: A. Savi (17'), D. Janosek (31', 72'), M. Sin (40'), D. Holan (81').

The match was played at Stadion Na Stoupách in Jihlava.