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Baník Ostrava II vs Vysočina Jihlava II — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Baník Ostrava II
Baník Ostrava II
FT
1 – 1
Vysočina Jihlava II
Vysočina Jihlava II
P. Jaron 13'
S. Chocholaty 40' (pen)
10/3/20213. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 10Bazaly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Baník Ostrava II72%
×Draw17%
Vysočina Jihlava II12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baník Ostrava II
2.50
Vysočina Jihlava II
0.90

Baník Ostrava II creates 178% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 23 away

creates per match

Baník Ostrava II
2.25
Vysočina Jihlava II
0.70

allows per match

Baník Ostrava II
1.09
Vysočina Jihlava II
2.74

finishing

Baník Ostrava II+0.00on par
Vysočina Jihlava II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Ostrava II ↓

Vysočina Jihlava II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Baník Ostrava II or draw
88%
Baník Ostrava II or Vysočina Jihlava II
83%
Draw or Vysočina Jihlava II
28%

Winning margin

Baník Ostrava II wins by 2+
50%
Vysočina Jihlava II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Baník Ostrava II 1+ goals
92%
Baník Ostrava II 2+ goals
71%
Baník Ostrava II 3+ goals
45%
Vysočina Jihlava II 1+ goals
59%
Vysočina Jihlava II 2+ goals
23%
Vysočina Jihlava II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Baník Ostrava II (draw refunded)
86%
Vysočina Jihlava II (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Ostrava II at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.09 · 65 matches

Vysočina Jihlava II away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.74 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Ostrava II attack 2.25 + Vysočina Jihlava II defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 2.50

Vysočina Jihlava II attack 0.70 + Baník Ostrava II defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Baník Ostrava II scores more
72%
level
17%
Vysočina Jihlava II scores more
12%

Baník Ostrava II at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Baník Ostrava II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
P. Jaron
31'
F. Sotornik← F. Sotornik
40'
S. ChocholatyPenalty
46'
A. Ritter← A. Ritter
66'
R. Zalesak
72'
Z. Riha← Z. Riha
79'
Z. Riha
80'
A. Savi← A. Savi
86'
T. Lat← T. Lat
86'
F. Zouhar← F. Zouhar
90'
S. Nemecek← S. Nemecek

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baník Ostrava II vs Vysočina Jihlava II

Baník Ostrava II and Vysočina Jihlava II drew 1-1 in 3. liga - MSFL on October 3, 2021.

Goals: P. Jaron (13'), S. Chocholaty (40' pen).

The match was played at Bazaly in Slezská Ostrava.