Vyškov vs Ústí nad Labem — FNL 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 58+ matches
Vyškov51%
Ústí nad Labem25%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Vyškov creates 51% more chances
Season form · 60 home / 58 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over53
- Under47
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Vyškov ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Vyškov at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.03 · 60 matches
Ústí nad Labem away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.76 · 58 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Vyškov attack 1.60 + Ústí nad Labem defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.68
Ústí nad Labem attack 1.19 + Vyškov defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.11
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 51%?"
Vyškov at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 51% does not mean "Vyškov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Zbrojovka Brno
Táborsko
ArtisÚstí nad Labem
Baník Ostrava II
Příbram
Opava
Viktoria Žižkov
Vlašim
Slavia Praha II
Chrudim
Hanácká
České Budějovice
Prostějov
Vysočina Jihlava
Sparta Praha IIIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Vyškov host Ústí nad Labem on Saturday, 2 October 2021 at 08:15. The match is part of the FNL 2019/2020 season.
FNL: Vyškov 1–0 Ústí nad Labem
Vyškov beat Ústí nad Labem 1-0 in FNL on October 2, 2021.
Goals: P. Ilko (80').
The match was played at Sportovní areál Drnovice in Drnovice.