Ústí nad Labem 1–1 Vyškov: Result & Stats | FNL

Ústí nad Labem

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Vyškov

L. Krobot 83'

F. Matys 78'

4/16/2022

FNL · Round 24Městský stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Ústí nad Labem39%

×Draw27%

Vyškov34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ústí nad LabemExpected goals in this matchVyškov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.18

Ústí nad Labem

1.30

Vyškov

1.18

Ústí nad Labem creates 10% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 60 away

1.38

creates per match

1.17

1.19

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Ústí nad Labem

1.38

Vyškov

1.17

allows per match

Ústí nad Labem

1.19

Vyškov

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ústí nad Labem+0.00on par

Vyškov+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ústí nad Labem ↓

Vyškov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ústí nad Labem or draw

66%

Ústí nad Labem or Vyškov

73%

Draw or Vyškov

61%

Winning margin

Ústí nad Labem wins by 2+

18%

Vyškov wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Ústí nad Labem 1+ goals

73%

Ústí nad Labem 2+ goals

37%

Ústí nad Labem 3+ goals

14%

Vyškov 1+ goals

69%

Vyškov 2+ goals

33%

Vyškov 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Ústí nad Labem (draw refunded)

54%

Vyškov (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ústí nad Labem at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.19 · 58 matches

Vyškov away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.22 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ústí nad Labem attack 1.38 + Vyškov defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.30

Vyškov attack 1.17 + Ústí nad Labem defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ústí nad Labem scores more

39%

level

27%

Vyškov scores more

34%

Ústí nad Labem at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ústí nad Labem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

J. Harustak

31'

V. Brak

59'

A. Černý← M. Kabantsov

59'

J. Emmer← F. Gedeon

59'

M. Ogiomade← J. Jiránek

60'

L. Lahodny

62'

M. Klesa← B. Kanakimana

62'

M. Macej← M. Sedlák

65'

J. Oulehla← D. Němeček

67'

L. Krobot

78'

L. González← J. Miskovič

78'

F. Matys

83'

P. Kurka← A. Uličný

83'

L. Krobot

88'

J. Ackroyd← T. Cabadaj

Ústí

Vyškov

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: D. Jarolím

59'▲A. Černý←▼M. Kabantsov

59'▲J. Emmer←▼F. Gedeon

59'▲M. Ogiomade←▼J. Jiránek

78'▲L. González←▼J. Miskovič

83'▲P. Kurka←▼A. Uličný

Ústí nad Labem substitutes

ČernýEmmerOgiomadeGonzálezKurka

Manager: R. Horáček

62'▲M. Klesa←▼B. Kanakimana

62'▲M. Macej←▼M. Sedlák

65'▲J. Oulehla←▼D. Němeček

88'▲J. Ackroyd←▼T. Cabadaj

Vyškov substitutes

KlesaMacejOulehlaAckroyd