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Vyškov vs Sparta Praha II — FNL 2019

Vyškov
Vyškov
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sparta Praha II
Sparta Praha II
4/19/2025FNLFNL · Round 24Sportovní areál Drnovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Vyškov52%
×Draw24%
Sparta Praha II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vyškov
1.71
Sparta Praha II
1.09

Vyškov creates 57% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 75 away

creates per match

Vyškov
1.60
Sparta Praha II
1.15

allows per match

Vyškov
1.03
Sparta Praha II
1.81

finishing

Vyškov+0.00on par
Sparta Praha II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vyškov ↓

Sparta Praha II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Vyškov or draw
76%
Vyškov or Sparta Praha II
76%
Draw or Sparta Praha II
48%

Winning margin

Vyškov wins by 2+
28%
Sparta Praha II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Vyškov 1+ goals
82%
Vyškov 2+ goals
51%
Vyškov 3+ goals
24%
Sparta Praha II 1+ goals
66%
Sparta Praha II 2+ goals
30%
Sparta Praha II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Vyškov (draw refunded)
68%
Sparta Praha II (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vyškov at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.03 · 60 matches

Sparta Praha II away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.81 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vyškov attack 1.60 + Sparta Praha II defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.71

Sparta Praha II attack 1.15 + Vyškov defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Vyškov scores more
52%
level
24%
Sparta Praha II scores more
24%

Vyškov at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Vyškov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FNL: Vyškov 0–0 Sparta Praha II

Vyškov and Sparta Praha II drew 0-0 in FNL on April 19, 2025.

The match was played at Sportovní areál Drnovice in Drnovice.