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Sparta Praha II vs Vyškov — FNL 2019

Sparta Praha II
Sparta Praha II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vyškov
Vyškov
9/21/2024FNLFNL · Round 10eFotbal aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Sparta Praha II41%
×Draw26%
Vyškov32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sparta Praha II
1.39
Vyškov
1.19

Sparta Praha II creates 17% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 60 away

creates per match

Sparta Praha II
1.55
Vyškov
1.17

allows per match

Sparta Praha II
1.21
Vyškov
1.22

finishing

Sparta Praha II+0.00on par
Vyškov+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Praha II ↓

Vyškov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sparta Praha II or draw
68%
Sparta Praha II or Vyškov
74%
Draw or Vyškov
59%

Winning margin

Sparta Praha II wins by 2+
19%
Vyškov wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sparta Praha II 1+ goals
75%
Sparta Praha II 2+ goals
40%
Sparta Praha II 3+ goals
16%
Vyškov 1+ goals
70%
Vyškov 2+ goals
33%
Vyškov 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sparta Praha II (draw refunded)
56%
Vyškov (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Praha II at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.21 · 75 matches

Vyškov away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.22 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Praha II attack 1.55 + Vyškov defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.39

Vyškov attack 1.17 + Sparta Praha II defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sparta Praha II scores more
41%
level
26%
Vyškov scores more
32%

Sparta Praha II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sparta Praha II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sparta Praha II vs Vyškov

Sparta Praha II beat Vyškov 1-0 in FNL on September 21, 2024.

The match was played at eFotbal aréna in Praha.