Vyškov 1–1 Skalica: Result & Stats

Vyškov

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Skalica

I. Metsoko 65'

Y. Yao 4'

7/15/2023

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sportovní areál Drnovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Vyškov32%

×Draw26%

Skalica43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VyškovExpected goals in this matchSkalica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.47

Vyškov

1.23

Skalica

1.47

Skalica creates 20% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

1.17

creates per match

1.60

1.33

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Vyškov

1.17

Skalica

1.60

allows per match

Vyškov

1.33

Skalica

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vyškov+0.00on par

Skalica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vyškov ↓

Skalica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Vyškov or draw

57%

Vyškov or Skalica

74%

Draw or Skalica

68%

Winning margin

Vyškov wins by 2+

13%

Skalica wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Vyškov 1+ goals

71%

Vyškov 2+ goals

35%

Vyškov 3+ goals

13%

Skalica 1+ goals

77%

Skalica 2+ goals

43%

Skalica 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Vyškov (draw refunded)

43%

Skalica (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vyškov at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Skalica away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vyškov attack 1.17 + Skalica defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.23

Skalica attack 1.60 + Vyškov defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Vyškov scores more

32%

level

26%

Skalica scores more

43%

Skalica at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Skalica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

Y. Yao

35'

Mora← Mora

46'

O. Vintr← A. Traore

57'

D. Baumgartner← Smekal

57'

R. Hasa← J. Vlasko

62'

A. Cerven← M. Ramathan

62'

D. Nemecek← D. Nemecek

62'

F. Toure← B. Lacik

65'

I. Metsoko

72'

A. Sobczyk← M. Masik

72'

M. Nagy← O. Rudzan

74'

I. Metsoko← D. Thon

74'

B. Kanakimana← D. Krska

82'

C. Souare← G. Williams

82'

Souleymane← Souleymane

Statistics

VyškovSkalica

Overview

3Corners4