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Vyškov vs Prostějov — FNL 2019

Vyškov
Vyškov
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Prostějov
Prostějov
9/16/2023FNLFNL · Round 9Sportovní areál Drnovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Vyškov54%
×Draw24%
Prostějov22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vyškov
1.72
Prostějov
1.02

Vyškov creates 69% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 103 away

creates per match

Vyškov
1.60
Prostějov
1.02

allows per match

Vyškov
1.03
Prostějov
1.83

finishing

Vyškov+0.00on par
Prostějov+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vyškov ↓

Prostějov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Vyškov or draw
78%
Vyškov or Prostějov
76%
Draw or Prostějov
46%

Winning margin

Vyškov wins by 2+
29%
Prostějov wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Vyškov 1+ goals
82%
Vyškov 2+ goals
51%
Vyškov 3+ goals
25%
Prostějov 1+ goals
64%
Prostějov 2+ goals
27%
Prostějov 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Vyškov (draw refunded)
71%
Prostějov (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vyškov at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.03 · 60 matches

Prostějov away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.83 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vyškov attack 1.60 + Prostějov defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.72

Prostějov attack 1.02 + Vyškov defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Vyškov scores more
54%
level
24%
Prostějov scores more
22%

Vyškov at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Vyškov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vyškov vs Prostějov

Vyškov beat Prostějov 4-3 in FNL on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Sportovní areál Drnovice in Drnovice.