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Prostějov vs Vyškov — FNL 2019

Prostějov
Prostějov
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Vyškov
Vyškov
5/25/2025FNLFNL · Round 30Stadion 1. SK Prostějov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Prostějov39%
×Draw27%
Vyškov35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Prostějov
1.31
Vyškov
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 103 home / 60 away

creates per match

Prostějov
1.40
Vyškov
1.17

allows per match

Prostějov
1.30
Vyškov
1.22

finishing

Prostějov+0.00on par
Vyškov+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prostějov ↓

Vyškov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Prostějov or draw
65%
Prostějov or Vyškov
73%
Draw or Vyškov
61%

Winning margin

Prostějov wins by 2+
17%
Vyškov wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Prostějov 1+ goals
73%
Prostějov 2+ goals
38%
Prostějov 3+ goals
14%
Vyškov 1+ goals
71%
Vyškov 2+ goals
35%
Vyškov 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Prostějov (draw refunded)
53%
Vyškov (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prostějov at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.30 · 103 matches

Vyškov away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.22 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prostějov attack 1.40 + Vyškov defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.31

Vyškov attack 1.17 + Prostějov defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Prostějov scores more
39%
level
27%
Vyškov scores more
35%

Prostějov at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Prostějov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Prostějov vs Vyškov

Vyškov beat Prostějov 2-0 in FNL on May 25, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion 1. SK Prostějov in Prostějov.