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Vyškov vs Karviná — FNL 2019

Vyškov
Vyškov
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Karviná
Karviná
9/3/2022FNLFNL · Round 7Sportovní areál Drnovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Vyškov46%
×Draw23%
Karviná31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vyškov
1.80
Karviná
1.42

Vyškov creates 27% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 15 away

creates per match

Vyškov
1.60
Karviná
1.80

allows per match

Vyškov
1.03
Karviná
2.00

finishing

Vyškov+0.00on par
Karviná+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vyškov ↓

Karviná →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Vyškov or draw
69%
Vyškov or Karviná
77%
Draw or Karviná
54%

Winning margin

Vyškov wins by 2+
25%
Karviná wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Vyškov 1+ goals
83%
Vyškov 2+ goals
54%
Vyškov 3+ goals
27%
Karviná 1+ goals
76%
Karviná 2+ goals
41%
Karviná 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Vyškov (draw refunded)
60%
Karviná (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vyškov at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.03 · 60 matches

Karviná away — creates 1.80, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vyškov attack 1.60 + Karviná defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.80

Karviná attack 1.80 + Vyškov defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Vyškov scores more
46%
level
23%
Karviná scores more
31%

Vyškov at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Vyškov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FNL: Vyškov 2–1 Karviná

Vyškov beat Karviná 2-1 in FNL on September 3, 2022.

The match was played at Sportovní areál Drnovice in Drnovice.