Karviná 2–0 Vyškov: Result & Stats | FNL

Karviná

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Vyškov

4/7/2023

FNL · Round 21Městský Stadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Karviná57%

×Draw24%

Vyškov19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KarvináExpected goals in this matchVyškov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.82

Karviná

1.65

Vyškov

0.82

Karviná creates 101% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 60 away

2.07

creates per match

1.17

0.47

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Karviná

2.07

Vyškov

1.17

allows per match

Karviná

0.47

Vyškov

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karviná+0.00on par

Vyškov+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karviná ↓

Vyškov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Karviná or draw

81%

Karviná or Vyškov

76%

Draw or Vyškov

43%

Winning margin

Karviná wins by 2+

31%

Vyškov wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Karviná 1+ goals

81%

Karviná 2+ goals

49%

Karviná 3+ goals

23%

Vyškov 1+ goals

56%

Vyškov 2+ goals

20%

Vyškov 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Karviná (draw refunded)

75%

Vyškov (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karviná at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.47 · 15 matches

Vyškov away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.22 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karviná attack 2.07 + Vyškov defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.65

Vyškov attack 1.17 + Karviná defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Karviná scores more

57%

level

24%

Vyškov scores more

19%

Karviná at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Karviná will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff