Vyškov 5–2 Dolní Benešov: Result & Stats

Vyškov

FT

5 – 2

Dolní Benešov

D. Jambor 85'

P. Simr 79', 58', 44'

K. Jaros 74'

M. Pecuch 81', 68'

8/22/2020

3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 3Stadion Za parkem

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Vyškov67%

×Draw17%

Dolní Benešov15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VyškovExpected goals in this matchDolní Benešov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.53

1.13

Vyškov

2.53

Dolní Benešov

1.13

Vyškov creates 124% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 26 away

2.33

creates per match

1.08

1.17

allows per match

2.73

creates per match

Vyškov

2.33

Dolní Benešov

1.08

allows per match

Vyškov

1.17

Dolní Benešov

2.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vyškov+0.00on par

Dolní Benešov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vyškov ↓

Dolní Benešov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Vyškov or draw

85%

Vyškov or Dolní Benešov

83%

Draw or Dolní Benešov

33%

Winning margin

Vyškov wins by 2+

45%

Dolní Benešov wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Vyškov 1+ goals

92%

Vyškov 2+ goals

71%

Vyškov 3+ goals

46%

Dolní Benešov 1+ goals

68%

Dolní Benešov 2+ goals

31%

Dolní Benešov 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Vyškov (draw refunded)

81%

Dolní Benešov (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vyškov at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Dolní Benešov away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.73 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vyškov attack 2.33 + Dolní Benešov defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.53

Dolní Benešov attack 1.08 + Vyškov defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Vyškov scores more

67%

level

17%

Dolní Benešov scores more

15%

Vyškov at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Vyškov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

M. Musila

34'

M. Sedlo

36'

M. Musila

36'

M. Musila

38'

O. Dolba← O. Dolba

44'

P. Simr

58'

P. Simr

62'

A. Dittmer← A. Dittmer

68'

M. Pecuch

70'

J. Byma← J. Byma

73'

O. Vintr← K. Jaros

74'

K. Jaros

78'

O. Vecerek← O. Vecerek

79'

P. Simr

79'

P. Simr← D. Nieslanik

81'

M. Pecuch

85'

D. Jambor

88'

D. Jambor← J. Oulehla

88'

T. Langer← J. Seyi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff