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Dolní Benešov vs Vyškov — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Dolní Benešov
Dolní Benešov
CANC
14:00
Vyškov
Vyškov
5/12/20213. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 20Stadion FC MSA Dolní Benešov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Dolní Benešov28%
×Draw27%
Vyškov45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dolní Benešov
1.06
Vyškov
1.43

Vyškov creates 35% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 16 away

creates per match

Dolní Benešov
0.80
Vyškov
1.25

allows per match

Dolní Benešov
1.60
Vyškov
1.31

finishing

Dolní Benešov+0.00on par
Vyškov+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dolní Benešov ↓

Vyškov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Dolní Benešov or draw
55%
Dolní Benešov or Vyškov
73%
Draw or Vyškov
72%

Winning margin

Dolní Benešov wins by 2+
11%
Vyškov wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Dolní Benešov 1+ goals
65%
Dolní Benešov 2+ goals
29%
Dolní Benešov 3+ goals
9%
Vyškov 1+ goals
76%
Vyškov 2+ goals
42%
Vyškov 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Dolní Benešov (draw refunded)
38%
Vyškov (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dolní Benešov at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.60 · 20 matches

Vyškov away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dolní Benešov attack 0.80 + Vyškov defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.06

Vyškov attack 1.25 + Dolní Benešov defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dolní Benešov scores more
28%
level
27%
Vyškov scores more
45%

Vyškov at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Vyškov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Dolní Benešov host Vyškov

May 12, 2021: Dolní Benešov take on Vyškov in 3. liga - MSFL. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Dolní Benešov host Vyškov at Stadion FC MSA Dolní Benešov.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.