VVV Venlo 3–2 Willem II: Result & Stats

VVV Venlo

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Willem II

N. Venema 65'

S. Braken 45+3' (pen), 41'

J. Hornkamp 36', 13'

5/23/2023

Eredivisie · Relegation RoundCovebo Stadion - De Koel -

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

VVV Venlo42%

×Draw24%

Willem II34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VVV VenloExpected goals in this matchWillem II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.48

VVV Venlo

1.67

Willem II

1.48

VVV Venlo creates 13% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 184 away

1.31

creates per match

1.03

1.94

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

VVV Venlo

1.31

Willem II

1.03

allows per match

VVV Venlo

1.94

Willem II

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VVV Venlo+0.00on par

Willem II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VVV Venlo ↓

Willem II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

VVV Venlo or draw

66%

VVV Venlo or Willem II

76%

Draw or Willem II

58%

Winning margin

VVV Venlo wins by 2+

22%

Willem II wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

VVV Venlo 1+ goals

81%

VVV Venlo 2+ goals

50%

VVV Venlo 3+ goals

23%

Willem II 1+ goals

77%

Willem II 2+ goals

43%

Willem II 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

VVV Venlo (draw refunded)

55%

Willem II (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VVV Venlo at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.94 · 115 matches

Willem II away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.02 · 184 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VVV Venlo attack 1.31 + Willem II defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.67

Willem II attack 1.03 + VVV Venlo defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

VVV Venlo scores more

42%

level

24%

Willem II scores more

34%

VVV Venlo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "VVV Venlo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

S. Braken

VVV Venlo · F

9.3

Match Events

5'

Robert Klaasen

13'

J. Hornkamp↳ L. Woudenberg

36'

Sven Braken

36'

J. Hornkamp↳ E. Kabangu

41'

S. Braken

45+1'

Sven BrakenPenalty confirmed

45+2'

Pol Llonch

45+3'

S. BrakenPenalty

46'

B. Koglin← R. Lathouwers

56'

K. de Boer← S. Allouch

65'

N. Venema↳ S. Braken

71'

J. Bokila← E. Kabangu

71'

F. Heerkens← L. Woudenberg

71'

R. Meerveld← J. Bosch

76'

Matthias Verreth

76'

C. Johansson← N. Venema

88'

M. Svensson← T. Oosting

90+4'

Jizz Hornkamp

90+1'

Jeremy Bokila

90+2'

D. Huisman← S. Braken

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VVVWillem

Overview

45%Possession55%

13Total Shots11

5Corners5

11Fouls14

Shots

13Total Shots11

4On Target7

6Off Target3

3Blocked1

9Inside Box8

4Outside Box3

Passing

45%Possession55%

401Total Passes494

289Accurate Passes390

72%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls14

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides1