VVV Venlo 2–1 Telstar: Result & Stats

VVV Venlo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Telstar

M. Kaastrup 61'

L. Smans 14'

Z. Eddahchouri 34'

12/22/2023

Eerste Divisie · Round 20Covebo Stadion - De Koel -

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

VVV Venlo43%

×Draw25%

Telstar32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VVV VenloExpected goals in this matchTelstar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.32

VVV Venlo

1.55

Telstar

1.32

VVV Venlo creates 17% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 130 away

1.41

creates per match

1.18

1.46

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

VVV Venlo

1.41

Telstar

1.18

allows per match

VVV Venlo

1.46

Telstar

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VVV Venlo+0.00on par

Telstar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VVV Venlo ↓

Telstar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

VVV Venlo or draw

68%

VVV Venlo or Telstar

75%

Draw or Telstar

57%

Winning margin

VVV Venlo wins by 2+

21%

Telstar wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

VVV Venlo 1+ goals

79%

VVV Venlo 2+ goals

46%

VVV Venlo 3+ goals

20%

Telstar 1+ goals

73%

Telstar 2+ goals

38%

Telstar 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

VVV Venlo (draw refunded)

57%

Telstar (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VVV Venlo at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.46 · 95 matches

Telstar away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.69 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VVV Venlo attack 1.41 + Telstar defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.55

Telstar attack 1.18 + VVV Venlo defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

VVV Venlo scores more

43%

level

25%

Telstar scores more

32%

VVV Venlo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "VVV Venlo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

44

M. Kaastrup

VVV Venlo · M

7.9

Match Events

13'

Alex Plat

14'

L. Smans↳ R. Lathouwers

34'

Z. Eddahchouri

37'

Michalis Kosidis

55'

T. Verheijen← M. Berden

61'

M. Kaastrup↳ E. Sierra

72'

Y. Liesdek← A. Plat

72'

Y. El Kachati← D. Gravenberch

72'

D. Koswal← S. Augustijns

74'

Devon Koswal

81'

P. Doesburg← M. Kosidis

81'

M. Odriss← L. Smans

86'

Robin Lathouwers

87'

C. Giousis← T. van de Loo

90+4'

90+3'

90+2'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VVVTelstar

Overview

53%Possession47%

12Total Shots4

5Corners6

16Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots4

6On Target1

5Off Target2

1Blocked1

8Inside Box1

4Outside Box3

Passing

53%Possession47%

418Total Passes372

333Accurate Passes288

80%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls11

5Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

Eerste Divisie: VVV Venlo 2–1 Telstar

VVV Venlo beat Telstar 2-1 in Eerste Divisie on December 22, 2023.

Goals: L. Smans (14'), Z. Eddahchouri (34'), M. Kaastrup (61').

VVV Venlo controlled possession (53%) and registered 12 shots to 4.

The match was played at Covebo Stadion - De Koel - in Venlo.

VVV Venlo vs Telstar — Eerste Divisie 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eerste Divisie: VVV Venlo 2–1 Telstar