Telstar 1–2 VVV Venlo: Result & Stats

Telstar

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

VVV Venlo

J. Turfkruier 14'

M. Berden 90+5'

P. Doesburg 73'

9/9/2023

Eerste Divisie · Round 5711 Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Telstar43%

×Draw24%

VVV Venlo33%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TelstarExpected goals in this matchVVV Venlo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.38

Telstar

1.60

VVV Venlo

1.38

Telstar creates 16% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 95 away

1.51

creates per match

1.25

1.51

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Telstar

1.51

VVV Venlo

1.25

allows per match

Telstar

1.51

VVV Venlo

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Telstar+0.00on par

VVV Venlo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Telstar ↓

VVV Venlo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Telstar or draw

67%

Telstar or VVV Venlo

76%

Draw or VVV Venlo

57%

Winning margin

Telstar wins by 2+

22%

VVV Venlo wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Telstar 1+ goals

80%

Telstar 2+ goals

47%

Telstar 3+ goals

22%

VVV Venlo 1+ goals

75%

VVV Venlo 2+ goals

40%

VVV Venlo 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Telstar (draw refunded)

56%

VVV Venlo (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Telstar at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.51 · 128 matches

VVV Venlo away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.69 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Telstar attack 1.51 + VVV Venlo defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.60

VVV Venlo attack 1.25 + Telstar defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Telstar scores more

43%

level

24%

VVV Venlo scores more

33%

Telstar at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Telstar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

Z. Eddahchouri

Telstar · F

8.0

Match Events

14'

J. Turfkruier

31'

R. Lathouwers← M. Rutten

43'

Q. van den Heerik← D. Gravenberch

45+6'

Robin Polley

45+2'

Jorginho Soares

47'

Roel Janssen

60'

M. Berden← M. Kaastrup

60'

P. Doesburg← L. Smans

60'

D. Timber← R. Janssen

61'

Dylan Timber

65'

L. Faye← A. Plat

73'

P. Doesburg↳ M. Berden

81'

Mees Kaandorp

83'

Mees Kaandorp

83'

Mees Kaandorp

88'

T. Verheijen← J. Kluskens

89'

D. Koswal← R. Polley

89'

L. Rocha de Almeida← J. Turfkruier

90+5'

M. Berden

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TelstarVVV

Overview

40%Possession60%

11Total Shots15

5Corners7

19Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots15

3On Target9

4Off Target1

4Blocked5

7Inside Box8

4Outside Box7

Passing

40%Possession60%

339Total Passes523

238Accurate Passes416

70%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

7Saves2

Discipline

19Fouls12

4Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

5Offsides0

Eerste Divisie: Telstar 1–2 VVV Venlo

VVV Venlo beat Telstar 2-1 in Eerste Divisie on September 9, 2023.

Goals: J. Turfkruier (14'), P. Doesburg (73'), M. Berden (90+5').

VVV Venlo controlled possession (60%) and registered 15 shots to 11.

The match was played at 711 Stadion in Velsen-Zuid.

Telstar vs VVV Venlo — Eerste Divisie 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eerste Divisie: Telstar 1–2 VVV Venlo