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VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ — Eerste Divisie 2018

VVV Venlo
VVV Venlo
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Jong AZ
Jong AZ
1/16/2026Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 23Seacon - De Koel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

VVV Venlo45%
×Draw24%
Jong AZ31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VVV Venlo
1.69
Jong AZ
1.36

VVV Venlo creates 24% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 147 away

creates per match

VVV Venlo
1.41
Jong AZ
1.27

allows per match

VVV Venlo
1.46
Jong AZ
1.97

finishing

VVV Venlo+0.00on par
Jong AZ+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VVV Venlo ↓

Jong AZ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

VVV Venlo or draw
69%
VVV Venlo or Jong AZ
76%
Draw or Jong AZ
55%

Winning margin

VVV Venlo wins by 2+
24%
Jong AZ wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

VVV Venlo 1+ goals
82%
VVV Venlo 2+ goals
50%
VVV Venlo 3+ goals
24%
Jong AZ 1+ goals
74%
Jong AZ 2+ goals
39%
Jong AZ 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

VVV Venlo (draw refunded)
59%
Jong AZ (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VVV Venlo at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.46 · 95 matches

Jong AZ away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.97 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VVV Venlo attack 1.41 + Jong AZ defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.69

Jong AZ attack 1.27 + VVV Venlo defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

VVV Venlo scores more
45%
level
24%
Jong AZ scores more
31%

VVV Venlo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "VVV Venlo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: VVV Venlo 1–3 Jong AZ

Jong AZ beat VVV Venlo 3-1 in Eerste Divisie on January 16, 2026.

The match was played at Seacon - De Koel in Venlo.