Jong AZ 2–1 VVV Venlo: Result & Stats

Jong AZ

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

VVV Venlo

4/22/2024

Eerste Divisie · Round 35AFAS Trainingscomplex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Jong AZ44%

×Draw24%

VVV Venlo33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jong AZExpected goals in this matchVVV Venlo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.43

Jong AZ

1.69

VVV Venlo

1.43

Jong AZ creates 18% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 95 away

1.70

creates per match

1.25

1.61

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Jong AZ

1.70

VVV Venlo

1.25

allows per match

Jong AZ

1.61

VVV Venlo

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jong AZ+0.00on par

VVV Venlo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong AZ ↓

VVV Venlo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Jong AZ or draw

67%

Jong AZ or VVV Venlo

76%

Draw or VVV Venlo

56%

Winning margin

Jong AZ wins by 2+

23%

VVV Venlo wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Jong AZ 1+ goals

82%

Jong AZ 2+ goals

50%

Jong AZ 3+ goals

24%

VVV Venlo 1+ goals

76%

VVV Venlo 2+ goals

42%

VVV Venlo 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Jong AZ (draw refunded)

57%

VVV Venlo (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong AZ at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.61 · 148 matches

VVV Venlo away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.69 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong AZ attack 1.70 + VVV Venlo defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.69

VVV Venlo attack 1.25 + Jong AZ defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Jong AZ scores more

44%

level

24%

VVV Venlo scores more

33%

Jong AZ at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Jong AZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff