VVV Venlo 1–0 Jong Ajax: Result & Stats

VVV Venlo

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Jong Ajax

N. Matoug 70'

3/7/2025

Eerste Divisie · Round 29Covebo Stadion - De Koel -

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

VVV Venlo54%

×Draw21%

Jong Ajax25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VVV VenloExpected goals in this matchJong Ajax

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.07

1.34

VVV Venlo

2.07

Jong Ajax

1.34

VVV Venlo creates 54% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

2.37

creates per match

1.05

1.64

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

VVV Venlo

2.37

Jong Ajax

1.05

allows per match

VVV Venlo

1.64

Jong Ajax

1.77

-1.37scores less than expected

finishing

-0.38scores less than expected

finishing

VVV Venlo-1.37scores less

Jong Ajax-0.38scores less

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VVV Venlo ↓

Jong Ajax →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

VVV Venlo or draw

75%

VVV Venlo or Jong Ajax

79%

Draw or Jong Ajax

46%

Winning margin

VVV Venlo wins by 2+

32%

Jong Ajax wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

VVV Venlo 1+ goals

87%

VVV Venlo 2+ goals

61%

VVV Venlo 3+ goals

34%

Jong Ajax 1+ goals

74%

Jong Ajax 2+ goals

39%

Jong Ajax 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

VVV Venlo (draw refunded)

69%

Jong Ajax (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VVV Venlo at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.64 · 7 matches

Jong Ajax away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.77 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VVV Venlo attack 2.37 + Jong Ajax defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.07

Jong Ajax attack 1.05 + VVV Venlo defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

VVV Venlo scores more

54%

level

21%

Jong Ajax scores more

25%

VVV Venlo at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "VVV Venlo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

T. Doornbusch

VVV Venlo · G

8.2

Match Events

22'

25'

62'

67'

68'

K. Wolff← D. Jermoumi

68'

J. Brandes← R. Bounida

68'

R. Chahid← R. Speksnijder

70'

Rida Chahid

70'

N. Matoug

77'

D. Kalokoh← S. Vink

85'

B. van Zijl← L. Kromah

86'

E. Butera← M. Verkuijl

90+3'

R. Kessels← L. Wehmeyer

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VVVJong

Overview

43%Possession57%

16Total Shots8

5Corners5

16Fouls11

Shots

16Total Shots8

4On Target4

6Off Target2

6Blocked2

8Inside Box7

8Outside Box1

Passing

43%Possession57%

346Total Passes457

273Accurate Passes371

79%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2