Jong Ajax 2–4 VVV Venlo: Result & Stats

Jong Ajax

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

VVV Venlo

D. O'Niel 66'

E. Unuvar 18'

G. Blancquart 79'

J. Triep 52'

B. van Zijl 46'

N. Matoug 11'

9/26/2025

Eerste Divisie · Round 8Sportcomplex De Toekomst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Jong Ajax34%

×Draw23%

VVV Venlo43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jong AjaxExpected goals in this matchVVV Venlo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.75

Jong Ajax

1.52

VVV Venlo

1.75

VVV Venlo creates 15% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

1.18

creates per match

1.72

1.77

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Jong Ajax

1.18

VVV Venlo

1.72

allows per match

Jong Ajax

1.77

VVV Venlo

1.87

+0.53scores more than expected

finishing

-0.52scores less than expected

finishing

Jong Ajax+0.53scores more

VVV Venlo-0.52scores less

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong Ajax ↓

VVV Venlo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Jong Ajax or draw

57%

Jong Ajax or VVV Venlo

77%

Draw or VVV Venlo

66%

Winning margin

Jong Ajax wins by 2+

16%

VVV Venlo wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Jong Ajax 1+ goals

78%

Jong Ajax 2+ goals

45%

Jong Ajax 3+ goals

20%

VVV Venlo 1+ goals

83%

VVV Venlo 2+ goals

52%

VVV Venlo 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Jong Ajax (draw refunded)

44%

VVV Venlo (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong Ajax at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.77 · 7 matches

VVV Venlo away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.87 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong Ajax attack 1.18 + VVV Venlo defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.52

VVV Venlo attack 1.72 + Jong Ajax defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Jong Ajax scores more

34%

level

23%

VVV Venlo scores more

43%

VVV Venlo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "VVV Venlo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

B. van Zijl

VVV Venlo · F

8.5

Match Events

11'

N. Matoug

18'

E. Unuvar↳ R. Bounida

45+1'

Mark Verkuijl

46'

L. de Blok← P. Heise

46'

B. van Zijl↳ J. Triep

52'

J. Triep

58'

Joshua Eijgenraam

59'

L. Kromah← N. Matoug

61'

D. van der Vaart← R. Bounida

61'

A. Ouazane← S. Steur

66'

D. O'Niel↳ L. Jetten

72'

A. Appiah← T. Peters

72'

L. Messori← D. O'Niel

74'

D. van Oorschot← J. Triep

74'

D. Zandbergen← B. van Zijl

79'

G. Blancquart↳ L. de Blok

81'

Tijn Joosten

83'

N. Foor← M. Odriss

86'

Z. Ouazane← E. Unuvar

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JongVVV

Overview

59%Possession41%

13Total Shots15

6Corners5

13Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots15

5On Target10

6Off Target3

2Blocked2

11Inside Box11

2Outside Box4

Passing

59%Possession41%

475Total Passes321

402Accurate Passes258

85%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides5