Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

VVV Venlo vs FC Eindhoven — Eerste Divisie 2018

VVV Venlo
VVV Venlo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Eindhoven
FC Eindhoven
2/7/2026Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 26Seacon - De Koel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

VVV Venlo41%
×Draw25%
FC Eindhoven34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VVV Venlo
1.52
FC Eindhoven
1.36

VVV Venlo creates 12% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 147 away

creates per match

VVV Venlo
1.41
FC Eindhoven
1.27

allows per match

VVV Venlo
1.46
FC Eindhoven
1.64

finishing

VVV Venlo+0.00on par
FC Eindhoven+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VVV Venlo ↓

FC Eindhoven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

VVV Venlo or draw
66%
VVV Venlo or FC Eindhoven
75%
Draw or FC Eindhoven
59%

Winning margin

VVV Venlo wins by 2+
20%
FC Eindhoven wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

VVV Venlo 1+ goals
78%
VVV Venlo 2+ goals
45%
VVV Venlo 3+ goals
20%
FC Eindhoven 1+ goals
74%
FC Eindhoven 2+ goals
39%
FC Eindhoven 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

VVV Venlo (draw refunded)
55%
FC Eindhoven (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VVV Venlo at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.46 · 95 matches

FC Eindhoven away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.64 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VVV Venlo attack 1.41 + FC Eindhoven defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.52

FC Eindhoven attack 1.27 + VVV Venlo defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

VVV Venlo scores more
41%
level
25%
FC Eindhoven scores more
34%

VVV Venlo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "VVV Venlo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: VVV Venlo vs FC Eindhoven

VVV Venlo beat FC Eindhoven 1-0 in Eerste Divisie on February 7, 2026.

The match was played at Seacon - De Koel in Venlo.