FC Eindhoven 1–3 VVV Venlo: Result & Stats

FC Eindhoven

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

VVV Venlo

12/13/2024

Eerste Divisie · Round 19Jan Louwers Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

FC Eindhoven45%

×Draw24%

VVV Venlo31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC EindhovenExpected goals in this matchVVV Venlo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.35

FC Eindhoven

1.67

VVV Venlo

1.35

FC Eindhoven creates 24% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 95 away

1.64

creates per match

1.25

1.45

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

FC Eindhoven

1.64

VVV Venlo

1.25

allows per match

FC Eindhoven

1.45

VVV Venlo

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Eindhoven+0.00on par

VVV Venlo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Eindhoven ↓

VVV Venlo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

FC Eindhoven or draw

69%

FC Eindhoven or VVV Venlo

76%

Draw or VVV Venlo

55%

Winning margin

FC Eindhoven wins by 2+

23%

VVV Venlo wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

FC Eindhoven 1+ goals

81%

FC Eindhoven 2+ goals

50%

FC Eindhoven 3+ goals

23%

VVV Venlo 1+ goals

74%

VVV Venlo 2+ goals

39%

VVV Venlo 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

FC Eindhoven (draw refunded)

59%

VVV Venlo (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Eindhoven at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.45 · 148 matches

VVV Venlo away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.69 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Eindhoven attack 1.64 + VVV Venlo defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.67

VVV Venlo attack 1.25 + FC Eindhoven defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FC Eindhoven scores more

45%

level

24%

VVV Venlo scores more

31%

FC Eindhoven at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FC Eindhoven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff