VVV Venlo 0–3 ADO Den Haag: Result & Stats

VVV Venlo

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

ADO Den Haag

11/28/2025

Eerste Divisie · Round 18Seacon - De Koel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

VVV Venlo32%

×Draw24%

ADO Den Haag44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VVV VenloExpected goals in this matchADO Den Haag

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.61

VVV Venlo

1.34

ADO Den Haag

1.61

ADO Den Haag creates 20% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 95 away

1.41

creates per match

1.77

1.46

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

VVV Venlo

1.41

ADO Den Haag

1.77

allows per match

VVV Venlo

1.46

ADO Den Haag

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VVV Venlo+0.00on par

ADO Den Haag+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VVV Venlo ↓

ADO Den Haag →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

VVV Venlo or draw

56%

VVV Venlo or ADO Den Haag

76%

Draw or ADO Den Haag

68%

Winning margin

VVV Venlo wins by 2+

14%

ADO Den Haag wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

VVV Venlo 1+ goals

74%

VVV Venlo 2+ goals

39%

VVV Venlo 3+ goals

15%

ADO Den Haag 1+ goals

80%

ADO Den Haag 2+ goals

48%

ADO Den Haag 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

VVV Venlo (draw refunded)

42%

ADO Den Haag (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VVV Venlo at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.46 · 95 matches

ADO Den Haag away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.28 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VVV Venlo attack 1.41 + ADO Den Haag defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.34

ADO Den Haag attack 1.77 + VVV Venlo defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

VVV Venlo scores more

32%

level

24%

ADO Den Haag scores more

44%

ADO Den Haag at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "ADO Den Haag will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff