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ADO Den Haag vs VVV Venlo — Eerste Divisie 2018

ADO Den Haag
ADO Den Haag
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
VVV Venlo
VVV Venlo
8/10/2024Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 1Bingoal Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

ADO Den Haag51%
×Draw23%
VVV Venlo26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ADO Den Haag
1.84
VVV Venlo
1.27

ADO Den Haag creates 45% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 95 away

creates per match

ADO Den Haag
2.00
VVV Venlo
1.25

allows per match

ADO Den Haag
1.28
VVV Venlo
1.69

finishing

ADO Den Haag+0.00on par
VVV Venlo+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADO Den Haag ↓

VVV Venlo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

ADO Den Haag or draw
74%
ADO Den Haag or VVV Venlo
77%
Draw or VVV Venlo
49%

Winning margin

ADO Den Haag wins by 2+
28%
VVV Venlo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

ADO Den Haag 1+ goals
84%
ADO Den Haag 2+ goals
55%
ADO Den Haag 3+ goals
28%
VVV Venlo 1+ goals
72%
VVV Venlo 2+ goals
36%
VVV Venlo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

ADO Den Haag (draw refunded)
66%
VVV Venlo (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADO Den Haag at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.28 · 95 matches

VVV Venlo away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.69 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADO Den Haag attack 2.00 + VVV Venlo defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.84

VVV Venlo attack 1.25 + ADO Den Haag defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

ADO Den Haag scores more
51%
level
23%
VVV Venlo scores more
26%

ADO Den Haag at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "ADO Den Haag will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: ADO Den Haag 1–1 VVV Venlo

ADO Den Haag and VVV Venlo drew 1-1 in Eerste Divisie on August 10, 2024.

The match was played at Bingoal Stadion in ‘s-Gravenhage.