Vvsb 3–1 Hoogeveen: Result & Stats

Vvsb

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Hoogeveen

5/18/2024

Derde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 33Sportpark De Boekhorst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Vvsb48%

×Draw20%

Hoogeveen32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VvsbExpected goals in this matchHoogeveen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.26

1.81

Vvsb

2.26

Hoogeveen

1.81

Vvsb creates 25% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 34 away

1.94

creates per match

1.47

2.15

allows per match

2.59

creates per match

Vvsb

1.94

Hoogeveen

1.47

allows per match

Vvsb

2.15

Hoogeveen

2.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vvsb+0.00on par

Hoogeveen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vvsb ↓

Hoogeveen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Vvsb or draw

68%

Vvsb or Hoogeveen

80%

Draw or Hoogeveen

52%

Winning margin

Vvsb wins by 2+

29%

Hoogeveen wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Vvsb 1+ goals

89%

Vvsb 2+ goals

66%

Vvsb 3+ goals

39%

Hoogeveen 1+ goals

84%

Hoogeveen 2+ goals

54%

Hoogeveen 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Vvsb (draw refunded)

60%

Hoogeveen (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vvsb at home — creates 1.94, concedes 2.15 · 47 matches

Hoogeveen away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.59 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vvsb attack 1.94 + Hoogeveen defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.26

Hoogeveen attack 1.47 + Vvsb defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Vvsb scores more

48%

level

20%

Hoogeveen scores more

32%

Vvsb at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Vvsb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff