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Hoogeveen vs Vvsb — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Hoogeveen
Hoogeveen
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 2
Vvsb
Vvsb
12/10/2023Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 16Sportpark Bentinckspark Veld 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Hoogeveen37%
×Draw23%
Vvsb41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hoogeveen
1.63
Vvsb
1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 48 away

creates per match

Hoogeveen
1.44
Vvsb
1.63

allows per match

Hoogeveen
1.82
Vvsb
1.81

finishing

Hoogeveen+0.00on par
Vvsb+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hoogeveen ↓

Vvsb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Hoogeveen or draw
59%
Hoogeveen or Vvsb
77%
Draw or Vvsb
63%

Winning margin

Hoogeveen wins by 2+
18%
Vvsb wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Hoogeveen 1+ goals
80%
Hoogeveen 2+ goals
48%
Hoogeveen 3+ goals
22%
Vvsb 1+ goals
82%
Vvsb 2+ goals
52%
Vvsb 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Hoogeveen (draw refunded)
47%
Vvsb (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hoogeveen at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.82 · 34 matches

Vvsb away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.81 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hoogeveen attack 1.44 + Vvsb defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.63

Vvsb attack 1.63 + Hoogeveen defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hoogeveen scores more
37%
level
23%
Vvsb scores more
41%

Vvsb at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Vvsb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: Hoogeveen 2–4 Vvsb

Vvsb beat Hoogeveen 4-2 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on December 10, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Bentinckspark Veld 7 in Hoogeveen.