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VVOG vs ONS Sneek — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

VVOG
VVOG
FT
3 – 2
ONS Sneek
ONS Sneek
9/14/2019Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 4Sportpark De Strokel (Harderwijk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

VVOG60%
×Draw18%
ONS Sneek22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VVOG
2.59
ONS Sneek
1.54

VVOG creates 68% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 12 away

creates per match

VVOG
1.52
ONS Sneek
1.00

allows per match

VVOG
2.08
ONS Sneek
3.67

finishing

VVOG+0.00on par
ONS Sneek+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VVOG ↓

ONS Sneek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

VVOG or draw
78%
VVOG or ONS Sneek
82%
Draw or ONS Sneek
40%

Winning margin

VVOG wins by 2+
39%
ONS Sneek wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

VVOG 1+ goals
92%
VVOG 2+ goals
73%
VVOG 3+ goals
47%
ONS Sneek 1+ goals
79%
ONS Sneek 2+ goals
45%
ONS Sneek 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

VVOG (draw refunded)
73%
ONS Sneek (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VVOG at home — creates 1.52, concedes 2.08 · 48 matches

ONS Sneek away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VVOG attack 1.52 + ONS Sneek defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.59

ONS Sneek attack 1.00 + VVOG defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

VVOG scores more
60%
level
18%
ONS Sneek scores more
22%

VVOG at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "VVOG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: VVOG 3–2 ONS Sneek

VVOG beat ONS Sneek 3-2 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Sportpark De Strokel (Harderwijk).