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ONS Sneek vs VVOG — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

ONS Sneek
ONS Sneek
FT
1 – 1
VVOG
VVOG
2/8/2020Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 21Zuidersportpark (Sneek)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

ONS Sneek43%
×Draw21%
VVOG37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ONS Sneek
2.12
VVOG
1.95

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 46 away

creates per match

ONS Sneek
1.82
VVOG
1.35

allows per match

ONS Sneek
2.55
VVOG
2.41

finishing

ONS Sneek+0.00on par
VVOG+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ONS Sneek ↓

VVOG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

ONS Sneek or draw
63%
ONS Sneek or VVOG
79%
Draw or VVOG
57%

Winning margin

ONS Sneek wins by 2+
24%
VVOG wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

ONS Sneek 1+ goals
88%
ONS Sneek 2+ goals
62%
ONS Sneek 3+ goals
35%
VVOG 1+ goals
86%
VVOG 2+ goals
58%
VVOG 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

ONS Sneek (draw refunded)
54%
VVOG (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ONS Sneek at home — creates 1.82, concedes 2.55 · 11 matches

VVOG away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.41 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ONS Sneek attack 1.82 + VVOG defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.12

VVOG attack 1.35 + ONS Sneek defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

ONS Sneek scores more
43%
level
21%
VVOG scores more
37%

ONS Sneek at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "ONS Sneek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ONS Sneek vs VVOG

ONS Sneek and VVOG drew 1-1 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on February 8, 2020.

The match was played at Zuidersportpark (Sneek).