VVOG 0–2 Harkemase Boys: Result & Stats

VVOG

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Harkemase Boys

12/3/2022

Derde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 17Sportpark De Strokel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

VVOG32%

×Draw22%

Harkemase Boys45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VVOGExpected goals in this matchHarkemase Boys

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.88

VVOG

1.56

Harkemase Boys

1.88

Harkemase Boys creates 21% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 98 away

1.52

creates per match

1.68

2.08

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

VVOG

1.52

Harkemase Boys

1.68

allows per match

VVOG

2.08

Harkemase Boys

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VVOG+0.00on par

Harkemase Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VVOG ↓

Harkemase Boys →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

VVOG or draw

55%

VVOG or Harkemase Boys

78%

Draw or Harkemase Boys

68%

Winning margin

VVOG wins by 2+

15%

Harkemase Boys wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

VVOG 1+ goals

79%

VVOG 2+ goals

46%

VVOG 3+ goals

21%

Harkemase Boys 1+ goals

85%

Harkemase Boys 2+ goals

56%

Harkemase Boys 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

VVOG (draw refunded)

42%

Harkemase Boys (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VVOG at home — creates 1.52, concedes 2.08 · 48 matches

Harkemase Boys away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.59 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VVOG attack 1.52 + Harkemase Boys defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.56

Harkemase Boys attack 1.68 + VVOG defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

VVOG scores more

32%

level

22%

Harkemase Boys scores more

45%

Harkemase Boys at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Harkemase Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff