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Harkemase Boys vs VVOG — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Harkemase Boys
Harkemase Boys
CANC
12:30
VVOG
VVOG
5/1/2021Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 31

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Harkemase Boys55%
×Draw21%
VVOG24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Harkemase Boys
2.17
VVOG
1.37

Harkemase Boys creates 58% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 46 away

creates per match

Harkemase Boys
1.93
VVOG
1.35

allows per match

Harkemase Boys
1.39
VVOG
2.41

finishing

Harkemase Boys+0.00on par
VVOG+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Harkemase Boys ↓

VVOG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Harkemase Boys or draw
76%
Harkemase Boys or VVOG
79%
Draw or VVOG
45%

Winning margin

Harkemase Boys wins by 2+
34%
VVOG wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Harkemase Boys 1+ goals
89%
Harkemase Boys 2+ goals
64%
Harkemase Boys 3+ goals
36%
VVOG 1+ goals
75%
VVOG 2+ goals
40%
VVOG 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Harkemase Boys (draw refunded)
70%
VVOG (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Harkemase Boys at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.39 · 97 matches

VVOG away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.41 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Harkemase Boys attack 1.93 + VVOG defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.17

VVOG attack 1.35 + Harkemase Boys defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Harkemase Boys scores more
55%
level
21%
VVOG scores more
24%

Harkemase Boys at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Harkemase Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Harkemase Boys vs VVOG — Match Preview

Harkemase Boys face VVOG on May 1, 2021 in this Derde Divisie - Saturday fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.