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VVOG vs Almere City II — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

VVOG
VVOG
FT
0 – 3
Almere City II
Almere City II
11/23/2019Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 13Sportpark De Strokel (Harderwijk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

VVOG35%
×Draw21%
Almere City II44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VVOG
1.80
Almere City II
2.04

Almere City II creates 13% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 11 away

creates per match

VVOG
1.52
Almere City II
2.00

allows per match

VVOG
2.08
Almere City II
2.09

finishing

VVOG+0.00on par
Almere City II+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VVOG ↓

Almere City II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

VVOG or draw
56%
VVOG or Almere City II
79%
Draw or Almere City II
65%

Winning margin

VVOG wins by 2+
18%
Almere City II wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

VVOG 1+ goals
83%
VVOG 2+ goals
54%
VVOG 3+ goals
27%
Almere City II 1+ goals
87%
Almere City II 2+ goals
60%
Almere City II 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

VVOG (draw refunded)
44%
Almere City II (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VVOG at home — creates 1.52, concedes 2.08 · 48 matches

Almere City II away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VVOG attack 1.52 + Almere City II defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.80

Almere City II attack 2.00 + VVOG defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

VVOG scores more
35%
level
21%
Almere City II scores more
44%

Almere City II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Almere City II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: VVOG 0–3 Almere City II

Almere City II beat VVOG 3-0 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on November 23, 2019.

The match was played at Sportpark De Strokel (Harderwijk).