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Almere City II vs VVOG — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Almere City II
Almere City II
CANC
00:00
VVOG
VVOG
5/9/2020Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 32Yanmar Stadion (Almere)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Almere City II55%
×Draw19%
VVOG26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almere City II
2.54
VVOG
1.72

Almere City II creates 48% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 46 away

creates per match

Almere City II
2.67
VVOG
1.35

allows per match

Almere City II
2.08
VVOG
2.41

finishing

Almere City II+0.00on par
VVOG+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almere City II ↓

VVOG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Almere City II or draw
74%
Almere City II or VVOG
81%
Draw or VVOG
45%

Winning margin

Almere City II wins by 2+
35%
VVOG wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Almere City II 1+ goals
92%
Almere City II 2+ goals
72%
Almere City II 3+ goals
46%
VVOG 1+ goals
82%
VVOG 2+ goals
51%
VVOG 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Almere City II (draw refunded)
68%
VVOG (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almere City II at home — creates 2.67, concedes 2.08 · 12 matches

VVOG away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.41 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almere City II attack 2.67 + VVOG defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.54

VVOG attack 1.35 + Almere City II defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Almere City II scores more
55%
level
19%
VVOG scores more
26%

Almere City II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Almere City II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Almere City II host VVOG

May 9, 2020: Almere City II take on VVOG in Derde Divisie - Saturday. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Almere City II host VVOG at Yanmar Stadion (Almere).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.