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Vushtrria vs Dinamo Ferizaj — Liga E Pare 2025

Vushtrria
Vushtrria
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Dinamo Ferizaj
Dinamo Ferizaj
8/30/2025Liga E PareLiga E Pare · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Vushtrria52%
×Draw23%
Dinamo Ferizaj25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vushtrria
1.83
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.18

Vushtrria creates 55% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Vushtrria
2.18
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.65

allows per match

Vushtrria
0.71
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.47

finishing

Vushtrria+0.00on par
Dinamo Ferizaj+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vushtrria ↓

Dinamo Ferizaj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Vushtrria or draw
75%
Vushtrria or Dinamo Ferizaj
77%
Draw or Dinamo Ferizaj
48%

Winning margin

Vushtrria wins by 2+
29%
Dinamo Ferizaj wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Vushtrria 1+ goals
84%
Vushtrria 2+ goals
54%
Vushtrria 3+ goals
28%
Dinamo Ferizaj 1+ goals
69%
Dinamo Ferizaj 2+ goals
33%
Dinamo Ferizaj 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Vushtrria (draw refunded)
68%
Dinamo Ferizaj (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vushtrria at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

Dinamo Ferizaj away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vushtrria attack 2.18 + Dinamo Ferizaj defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.83

Dinamo Ferizaj attack 1.65 + Vushtrria defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Vushtrria scores more
52%
level
23%
Dinamo Ferizaj scores more
25%

Vushtrria at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Vushtrria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga E Pare: Vushtrria 3–3 Dinamo Ferizaj

Vushtrria and Dinamo Ferizaj drew 3-3 in Liga E Pare on August 30, 2025.