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Dinamo Ferizaj vs Vushtrria — Liga E Pare 2025

Dinamo Ferizaj
Dinamo Ferizaj
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vushtrria
Vushtrria
2/21/2026Liga E PareLiga E Pare · Round 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Dinamo Ferizaj42%
×Draw27%
Vushtrria31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Ferizaj
1.38
Vushtrria
1.15

Dinamo Ferizaj creates 20% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Dinamo Ferizaj
1.94
Vushtrria
1.47

allows per match

Dinamo Ferizaj
0.82
Vushtrria
0.82

finishing

Dinamo Ferizaj+0.00on par
Vushtrria+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Ferizaj ↓

Vushtrria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Dinamo Ferizaj or draw
69%
Dinamo Ferizaj or Vushtrria
73%
Draw or Vushtrria
58%

Winning margin

Dinamo Ferizaj wins by 2+
20%
Vushtrria wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Dinamo Ferizaj 1+ goals
75%
Dinamo Ferizaj 2+ goals
40%
Dinamo Ferizaj 3+ goals
16%
Vushtrria 1+ goals
68%
Vushtrria 2+ goals
32%
Vushtrria 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Ferizaj (draw refunded)
57%
Vushtrria (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Ferizaj at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Vushtrria away — creates 1.47, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Ferizaj attack 1.94 + Vushtrria defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.38

Vushtrria attack 1.47 + Dinamo Ferizaj defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dinamo Ferizaj scores more
42%
level
27%
Vushtrria scores more
31%

Dinamo Ferizaj at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dinamo Ferizaj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Ferizaj vs Vushtrria

Dinamo Ferizaj beat Vushtrria 2-0 in Liga E Pare on February 21, 2026.