Vukovar 3–2 Istra 1961: Result & Stats | HNL

Vukovar

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Istra 1961

L. Banovec 87'

M. Tadic 47'

J. Puljic 15'

S. Prevljak 85'

D. Maresic 56' (pen)

2/7/2026

HNL · Round 21Stadion Gradski vrt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Vukovar46%

×Draw25%

Istra 196129%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VukovarExpected goals in this matchIstra 1961

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.18

Vukovar

1.54

Istra 1961

1.18

Vukovar creates 31% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 20 away

1.32

creates per match

1.08

1.28

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Vukovar

1.32

Istra 1961

1.08

allows per match

Vukovar

1.28

Istra 1961

1.75

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

+0.22scores more than expected

finishing

Vukovar-0.15scores less

Istra 1961+0.22scores more

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vukovar ↓

Istra 1961 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Vukovar or draw

71%

Vukovar or Istra 1961

75%

Draw or Istra 1961

54%

Winning margin

Vukovar wins by 2+

23%

Istra 1961 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Vukovar 1+ goals

79%

Vukovar 2+ goals

45%

Vukovar 3+ goals

20%

Istra 1961 1+ goals

69%

Istra 1961 2+ goals

33%

Istra 1961 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Vukovar (draw refunded)

61%

Istra 1961 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vukovar at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.28 · 6 matches

Istra 1961 away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.75 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vukovar attack 1.32 + Istra 1961 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.54

Istra 1961 attack 1.08 + Vukovar defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Vukovar scores more

46%

level

25%

Istra 1961 scores more

29%

Vukovar at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Vukovar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

F. Kolic

Istra 1961 · G

8.3

Match Events

10'

Vinko Rozić

11'

A. Jurilj← K. Pavicic

15'

Vito ČaićPenalty confirmed

15'

Franko Kolić

15'

J. Puljic

46'

A. Kadusic← N. Sepic

47'

M. Tadic↳ M. Ticinovic

54'

Israel AyumaPenalty confirmed

56'

D. MaresicPenalty

61'

M. Heister← M. Nasraoui

61'

C. Agada← I. Ayuma

64'

Raul Kumar

67'

J. Gurlica← V. Caic

74'

N. Skafar Zuzic← V. Rozic

82'

R. Gonzalez← L. Kulusic

82'

S. Miettinen← R. Kumar

85'

S. Prevljak↳ S. Loncar

87'

90+6'

90+5'

90+5'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VukovarIstra

Overview

37%Possession63%

26Total Shots13

2.85Expected Goals (xG)1.66

7Corners5

10Fouls12

Shots

26Total Shots13

13On Target4

8Off Target3

5Blocked6

21Inside Box7

5Outside Box6

Passing

37%Possession63%

265Total Passes481

187Accurate Passes396

71%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves10

1.02Goals Prevented1.02

Discipline

10Fouls12

2Yellow Cards4

0Offsides1