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Istra 1961 vs Vukovar — HNL 2018

Istra 1961
Istra 1961
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Vukovar
Vukovar
E. Frederiksen 10'
R. Gonzalez 13'
11/1/2025HNLHNL · Round 12Stadion Aldo Drosina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Istra 196147%
×Draw26%
Vukovar27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Istra 1961
1.46
Vukovar
1.04

Istra 1961 creates 40% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 8 away

creates per match

Istra 1961
1.16
Vukovar
0.78

allows per match

Istra 1961
1.30
Vukovar
1.76

finishing

Istra 1961+0.09on par
Vukovar-0.03on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Istra 1961 ↓

Vukovar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Istra 1961 or draw
73%
Istra 1961 or Vukovar
74%
Draw or Vukovar
53%

Winning margin

Istra 1961 wins by 2+
23%
Vukovar wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Istra 1961 1+ goals
77%
Istra 1961 2+ goals
43%
Istra 1961 3+ goals
18%
Vukovar 1+ goals
65%
Vukovar 2+ goals
28%
Vukovar 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Istra 1961 (draw refunded)
63%
Vukovar (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Istra 1961 at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.30 · 24 matches

Vukovar away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.76 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Istra 1961 attack 1.16 + Vukovar defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.46

Vukovar attack 0.78 + Istra 1961 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Istra 1961 scores more
47%
level
26%
Vukovar scores more
27%

Istra 1961 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Istra 1961 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
E. FrederiksenIstra 1961Istra 1961 · M
8.2

Match Events

10'
E. Frederiksen↳ S. Lawal
13'
R. Gonzalez↳ L. Banovec
46'
F. Taraba← M. Heister
59'
A. Mauric← V. Rozic
59'
S. Prevljak← I. Ayuma
69'
D. Djuric← S. Loncar
85'
A. Jay← V. Koski
88'
V. Caic← A. Jurilj
89'
Jakov Puljić
90+1'
J. Spoljaric← J. Puljic

Possession

56%Istra

Shots

12Istra

Pass accuracy

53%Istra

Statistics

IstraVukovar
Overview
56%Possession44%
12Total Shots13
4Corners8
10Fouls6
Shots
12Total Shots13
4On Target4
5Off Target7
3Blocked2
10Inside Box6
2Outside Box7
Passing
56%Possession44%
447Total Passes347
363Accurate Passes252
81%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls6
0Yellow Cards1
3Offsides2

Match Recap: Istra 1961 vs Vukovar

Istra 1961 and Vukovar drew 1-1 in HNL on November 1, 2025.

Goals: E. Frederiksen (10'), R. Gonzalez (13').

Istra 1961 controlled possession (56%) and registered 12 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stadion Aldo Drosina in Pula.