Vukovar 2–0 Croatia Zmijavci: Result & Stats

Vukovar

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Croatia Zmijavci

3/23/2024

First NL · Round 23Stadion u Borovom Naselju

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Vukovar61%

×Draw23%

Croatia Zmijavci16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VukovarExpected goals in this matchCroatia Zmijavci

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

0.79

Vukovar

1.78

Croatia Zmijavci

0.79

Vukovar creates 125% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 109 away

1.90

creates per match

0.90

0.69

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Vukovar

1.90

Croatia Zmijavci

0.90

allows per match

Vukovar

0.69

Croatia Zmijavci

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vukovar+0.00on par

Croatia Zmijavci+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vukovar ↓

Croatia Zmijavci →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Vukovar or draw

84%

Vukovar or Croatia Zmijavci

77%

Draw or Croatia Zmijavci

39%

Winning margin

Vukovar wins by 2+

35%

Croatia Zmijavci wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Vukovar 1+ goals

83%

Vukovar 2+ goals

53%

Vukovar 3+ goals

26%

Croatia Zmijavci 1+ goals

55%

Croatia Zmijavci 2+ goals

19%

Croatia Zmijavci 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Vukovar (draw refunded)

79%

Croatia Zmijavci (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vukovar at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.69 · 51 matches

Croatia Zmijavci away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.67 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vukovar attack 1.90 + Croatia Zmijavci defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.78

Croatia Zmijavci attack 0.90 + Vukovar defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Vukovar scores more

61%

level

23%

Croatia Zmijavci scores more

16%

Vukovar at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Vukovar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff