Croatia Zmijavci 1–0 Vukovar: Result & Stats

Croatia Zmijavci

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Vukovar

10/13/2024

First NL · Round 10Stadion ŠRC Marijan Šuto Mrma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Croatia Zmijavci33%

×Draw27%

Vukovar39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Croatia ZmijavciExpected goals in this matchVukovar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.27

Croatia Zmijavci

1.15

Vukovar

1.27

Vukovar creates 10% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 48 away

1.46

creates per match

1.48

1.06

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Croatia Zmijavci

1.46

Vukovar

1.48

allows per match

Croatia Zmijavci

1.06

Vukovar

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Croatia Zmijavci+0.00on par

Vukovar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Croatia Zmijavci ↓

Vukovar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Croatia Zmijavci or draw

61%

Croatia Zmijavci or Vukovar

73%

Draw or Vukovar

67%

Winning margin

Croatia Zmijavci wins by 2+

14%

Vukovar wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Croatia Zmijavci 1+ goals

68%

Croatia Zmijavci 2+ goals

32%

Croatia Zmijavci 3+ goals

11%

Vukovar 1+ goals

72%

Vukovar 2+ goals

36%

Vukovar 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Croatia Zmijavci (draw refunded)

46%

Vukovar (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Croatia Zmijavci at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.06 · 106 matches

Vukovar away — creates 1.48, concedes 0.83 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Croatia Zmijavci attack 1.46 + Vukovar defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.15

Vukovar attack 1.48 + Croatia Zmijavci defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Croatia Zmijavci scores more

33%

level

27%

Vukovar scores more

39%

Vukovar at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Vukovar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff