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VSK Århus vs Vendsyssel FF — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

VSK Århus
VSK Århus
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vendsyssel FF
Vendsyssel FF
4/2/20262nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 21Ceres Park Vejlby

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

VSK Århus35%
×Draw26%
Vendsyssel FF40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VSK Århus
1.29
Vendsyssel FF
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 16 away

creates per match

VSK Århus
1.34
Vendsyssel FF
1.56

allows per match

VSK Århus
1.24
Vendsyssel FF
1.25

finishing

VSK Århus+0.00on par
Vendsyssel FF+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VSK Århus ↓

Vendsyssel FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

VSK Århus or draw
60%
VSK Århus or Vendsyssel FF
74%
Draw or Vendsyssel FF
65%

Winning margin

VSK Århus wins by 2+
15%
Vendsyssel FF wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

VSK Århus 1+ goals
72%
VSK Århus 2+ goals
37%
VSK Århus 3+ goals
14%
Vendsyssel FF 1+ goals
75%
Vendsyssel FF 2+ goals
41%
Vendsyssel FF 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

VSK Århus (draw refunded)
47%
Vendsyssel FF (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VSK Århus at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.24 · 29 matches

Vendsyssel FF away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VSK Århus attack 1.34 + Vendsyssel FF defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Vendsyssel FF attack 1.56 + VSK Århus defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

VSK Århus scores more
35%
level
26%
Vendsyssel FF scores more
40%

Vendsyssel FF at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vendsyssel FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: VSK Århus 0–0 Vendsyssel FF

VSK Århus and Vendsyssel FF drew 0-0 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on April 2, 2026.

The match was played at Ceres Park Vejlby in Risskov.