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Vendsyssel FF vs VSK Århus — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Vendsyssel FF
Vendsyssel FF
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
VSK Århus
VSK Århus
K. Kusk 37'
G. Junge 79'
K. Hedegaard 19' (pen)
9/27/20252nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 9Nord Energi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Vendsyssel FF48%
×Draw25%
VSK Århus27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vendsyssel FF
1.55
VSK Århus
1.10

Vendsyssel FF creates 41% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 29 away

creates per match

Vendsyssel FF
2.00
VSK Århus
1.14

allows per match

Vendsyssel FF
1.06
VSK Århus
1.10

finishing

Vendsyssel FF+0.00on par
VSK Århus+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vendsyssel FF ↓

VSK Århus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Vendsyssel FF or draw
73%
Vendsyssel FF or VSK Århus
75%
Draw or VSK Århus
52%

Winning margin

Vendsyssel FF wins by 2+
24%
VSK Århus wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Vendsyssel FF 1+ goals
79%
Vendsyssel FF 2+ goals
46%
Vendsyssel FF 3+ goals
20%
VSK Århus 1+ goals
67%
VSK Århus 2+ goals
30%
VSK Århus 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Vendsyssel FF (draw refunded)
64%
VSK Århus (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vendsyssel FF at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

VSK Århus away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.10 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vendsyssel FF attack 2.00 + VSK Århus defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.55

VSK Århus attack 1.14 + Vendsyssel FF defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Vendsyssel FF scores more
48%
level
25%
VSK Århus scores more
27%

Vendsyssel FF at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Vendsyssel FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
K. HedegaardPenalty
37'
K. Kusk
79'
G. Junge
Vendsyssel
VSK
M. Kristensen
Manager: M. Kristensen
Jacob Nicolaj Eichner
Manager: Jacob Nicolaj Eichner

Match Recap: Vendsyssel FF vs VSK Århus

VSK Århus beat Vendsyssel FF 2-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on September 27, 2025.

Goals: K. Hedegaard (19' pen), K. Kusk (37'), G. Junge (79').

The match was played at Nord Energi Arena in Hjørring.