VSK Århus 2–1 Vejgaard B: Result & Stats

VSK Århus

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Vejgaard B

3/9/2024

3. Division · Round 17Vejlby Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

VSK Århus54%

×Draw22%

Vejgaard B24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VSK ÅrhusExpected goals in this matchVejgaard B

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.21

VSK Århus

1.93

Vejgaard B

1.21

VSK Århus creates 60% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 32 away

1.89

creates per match

1.25

1.17

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

VSK Århus

1.89

Vejgaard B

1.25

allows per match

VSK Århus

1.17

Vejgaard B

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VSK Århus+0.00on par

Vejgaard B+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VSK Århus ↓

Vejgaard B →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

VSK Århus or draw

76%

VSK Århus or Vejgaard B

78%

Draw or Vejgaard B

46%

Winning margin

VSK Århus wins by 2+

31%

Vejgaard B wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

VSK Århus 1+ goals

85%

VSK Århus 2+ goals

57%

VSK Århus 3+ goals

30%

Vejgaard B 1+ goals

70%

Vejgaard B 2+ goals

34%

Vejgaard B 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

VSK Århus (draw refunded)

69%

Vejgaard B (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VSK Århus at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.17 · 64 matches

Vejgaard B away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.97 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VSK Århus attack 1.89 + Vejgaard B defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.93

Vejgaard B attack 1.25 + VSK Århus defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

VSK Århus scores more

54%

level

22%

Vejgaard B scores more

24%

VSK Århus at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "VSK Århus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff