Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Vejgaard B vs VSK Århus — 3. Division 2021

Vejgaard B
Vejgaard B
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
VSK Århus
VSK Århus
10/7/20233. Division3. Division · Round 10Spar Nord Arena Vejgaard B

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Vejgaard B34%
×Draw25%
VSK Århus41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vejgaard B
1.35
VSK Århus
1.50

VSK Århus creates 11% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 64 away

creates per match

Vejgaard B
1.34
VSK Århus
1.50

allows per match

Vejgaard B
1.50
VSK Århus
1.36

finishing

Vejgaard B+0.00on par
VSK Århus+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vejgaard B ↓

VSK Århus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Vejgaard B or draw
59%
Vejgaard B or VSK Århus
75%
Draw or VSK Århus
66%

Winning margin

Vejgaard B wins by 2+
15%
VSK Århus wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Vejgaard B 1+ goals
74%
Vejgaard B 2+ goals
39%
Vejgaard B 3+ goals
15%
VSK Århus 1+ goals
78%
VSK Århus 2+ goals
44%
VSK Århus 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Vejgaard B (draw refunded)
46%
VSK Århus (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vejgaard B at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.50 · 32 matches

VSK Århus away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.36 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vejgaard B attack 1.34 + VSK Århus defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.35

VSK Århus attack 1.50 + Vejgaard B defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Vejgaard B scores more
34%
level
25%
VSK Århus scores more
41%

VSK Århus at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "VSK Århus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vejgaard B vs VSK Århus

VSK Århus beat Vejgaard B 2-1 in 3. Division on October 7, 2023.

The match was played at Spar Nord Arena Vejgaard B in Aalborg.