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VSK Århus vs Næsby — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

VSK Århus
VSK Århus
FT
3 – 2
Næsby
Næsby
M. Skjellerup 66'
M. Boesen 56', 51'
K. Host 70'
M. de Claville Berthelsen 63'
5/24/20212nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 24Vejlby Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

VSK Århus42%
×Draw24%
Næsby34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VSK Århus
1.63
Næsby
1.43

VSK Århus creates 14% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 13 away

creates per match

VSK Århus
1.34
Næsby
1.62

allows per match

VSK Århus
1.24
Næsby
1.92

finishing

VSK Århus+0.00on par
Næsby+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VSK Århus ↓

Næsby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

VSK Århus or draw
66%
VSK Århus or Næsby
76%
Draw or Næsby
58%

Winning margin

VSK Århus wins by 2+
22%
Næsby wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

VSK Århus 1+ goals
80%
VSK Århus 2+ goals
48%
VSK Århus 3+ goals
22%
Næsby 1+ goals
76%
Næsby 2+ goals
42%
Næsby 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

VSK Århus (draw refunded)
56%
Næsby (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VSK Århus at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.24 · 29 matches

Næsby away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VSK Århus attack 1.34 + Næsby defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.63

Næsby attack 1.62 + VSK Århus defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

VSK Århus scores more
42%
level
24%
Næsby scores more
34%

VSK Århus at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "VSK Århus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

51'
M. Boesen
56'
M. Boesen
63'
M. de Claville Berthelsen
66'
M. Skjellerup
70'
K. Host

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: VSK Århus vs Næsby

VSK Århus beat Næsby 3-2 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on May 24, 2021.

Goals: M. Boesen (51', 56'), M. de Claville Berthelsen (63'), M. Skjellerup (66'), K. Host (70').

The match was played at Vejlby Stadion in Risskov.