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Næsby vs VSK Århus — 3. Division 2021

Næsby
Næsby
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
VSK Århus
VSK Århus
9/7/20243. Division3. Division · Round 6ALPI Arena Næsby

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Næsby42%
×Draw24%
VSK Århus34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Næsby
1.66
VSK Århus
1.47

Næsby creates 13% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 64 away

creates per match

Næsby
1.95
VSK Århus
1.50

allows per match

Næsby
1.44
VSK Århus
1.36

finishing

Næsby+0.00on par
VSK Århus+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Næsby ↓

VSK Århus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Næsby or draw
66%
Næsby or VSK Århus
76%
Draw or VSK Århus
58%

Winning margin

Næsby wins by 2+
22%
VSK Århus wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Næsby 1+ goals
81%
Næsby 2+ goals
49%
Næsby 3+ goals
23%
VSK Århus 1+ goals
77%
VSK Århus 2+ goals
43%
VSK Århus 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Næsby (draw refunded)
55%
VSK Århus (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Næsby at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.44 · 80 matches

VSK Århus away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.36 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Næsby attack 1.95 + VSK Århus defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.66

VSK Århus attack 1.50 + Næsby defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Næsby scores more
42%
level
24%
VSK Århus scores more
34%

Næsby at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Næsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Næsby vs VSK Århus

Næsby beat VSK Århus 4-1 in 3. Division on September 7, 2024.

The match was played at ALPI Arena Næsby in Odense.