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Næsby vs VSK Århus — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Næsby
Næsby
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
VSK Århus
VSK Århus
2/8/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Næsby66%
×Draw19%
VSK Århus15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Næsby
2.28
VSK Århus
1.00

Næsby creates 128% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

Næsby
2.89
VSK Århus
0.33

allows per match

Næsby
1.67
VSK Århus
1.67

finishing

Næsby+0.00on par
VSK Århus+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Næsby ↓

VSK Århus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Næsby or draw
85%
Næsby or VSK Århus
81%
Draw or VSK Århus
34%

Winning margin

Næsby wins by 2+
43%
VSK Århus wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Næsby 1+ goals
90%
Næsby 2+ goals
66%
Næsby 3+ goals
39%
VSK Århus 1+ goals
63%
VSK Århus 2+ goals
26%
VSK Århus 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Næsby (draw refunded)
81%
VSK Århus (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Næsby at home — creates 2.89, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

VSK Århus away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Næsby attack 2.89 + VSK Århus defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.28

VSK Århus attack 0.33 + Næsby defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Næsby scores more
66%
level
19%
VSK Århus scores more
15%

Næsby at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Næsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Næsby 2–0 VSK Århus

Næsby beat VSK Århus 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on February 8, 2026.